Takunkuman da kasashen yamma suka kakaba wa sojojin Rasha na mamaye kasar Ukraine na iya tilastawa wasu oligarchs biyu na Rasha, Vladimir Potanin da Oleg Deripaska, don kawo karshen rikici mafi dadewa a tarihin kamfanoni na Rasha, a maimakon haka su hada manyan gwanayen karafa - nickel da palladium manyan Norilsk Nickel da Kamfanin Aluminium United Company Rusal.
Kamar yadda bne IntelliNews ya yi bayani dalla-dalla, wasu karafa na Rasha suna da zurfi sosai a kasuwannin duniya kuma suna da wahala a sanya takunkumi.Kwanan nan Amurka ta kebe manyan karafa irin su palladium, rhodium, nickel, titanium, da kuma danyen aluminium, daga karin harajin shigo da kaya.
Wani mummunan kwarewa a cikin 2018 yana nufin cewa duka Potanin da Deripaska sun yi nasarar kauce wa takunkumi har zuwa kwanan nan.Deripaska da kamfanoninsa an ware su ne saboda takunkumi a lokacin, amma bayan farashin aluminum ya karu da kashi 40 cikin 100 a rana guda a kasuwar musayar karfe ta London (LME) bayan labarai, Ofishin Kula da Kaddarorin Harkokin Waje na Amurka (OFAC) ya jinkirta sanya takunkumin daga karshe ya ja baya gaba daya, inda ya sanya takunkumin da aka sanyawa Deripaska shi ne kadai aka janye daga baya tun lokacin da aka gabatar da mulki a shekarar 2014.
Hatta barazanar takunkumi kan Potanin ya riga ya haifar da tashin hankali a farashin nickel, wanda ya ninka farashin a watan Afrilu yayin da aka fara sanya takunkumin, ya karya dukkan bayanan, tare da tilasta wa LME dakatar da ciniki.
Tsoron kawo cikas ga kasuwar da ke samar da wani muhimmin sashi na masana'antar motoci masu amfani da wutar lantarki, Potanin ya yi nasarar kaucewa takunkumi, duk da kasancewarsa mafi arziki a kasar Rasha kuma daya daga cikin oligarch bakwai na asali a shekarun 1990 saboda Norilsk Nickel da ya kasance babban mai samar da nickel da palladium. don masana'antar kera motoci ta duniya.Koyaya, a cikin watan Yuni Burtaniya ta buga kararrawa ta farko ta gargadi ta hanyar sanya wa oligarch takunkumi.
Da zarar an cije shi, sau biyu kunya, Rusal kuma ba shi ne kai tsaye hari na takunkumin da aka kakaba wa Moscow kan mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine a wannan karon, amma Oleg Deripaska ya samu takunkumi daga Birtaniya da EU.
bne IntelliNews ya rigaya ya ba da shawarar cewa idan Norilsk Nickel ya fara fuskantar matsalolin kuɗi, dole ne ya yi taka tsantsan don kada ya haifar da rikici tsakaninsa da Deripaska, ɗaya daga cikin tsoffin masu hannun jari a tarihin kamfanoni na Rasha.Potanin ya ci gaba da yin jayayya na yanke rabe-raben rabe-rabe don kashe kudaden don ci gaba saboda kyakkyawan shiri na capex, musamman a filin palladium karafa, amma Rusal, wanda ya dogara da rabon Norilsk Nickel don tsabar kuɗinsa, yana adawa da ra'ayin sosai.
A cikin 2021 Potanin da Rusal sun sabunta muhawara game da rarraba Norilsk Nickel, wanda Rusal ya dogara da wani muhimmin sashi na tsabar kuɗin sa.Norilsk Nickel a baya ya rage rabon amma ya ba da shawarar dawo da $2bn.
Maimakon tsawaita yarjejeniyar hannun jarin da za ta kare a karshen shekarar 2022, kamfanonin biyu za su iya samun hanyar hadewa, in ji Potanin.A ƙarƙashin yarjejeniyar, Norilsk Nickel dole ne ya biya aƙalla 60% na EBITDA a cikin rabon rabon da aka ba da bashi-zuwa-EBITDA leverage shine 1.8x (mafi ƙarancin biya na $1bn).
"Ko da yake ba a yanke hukunci na ƙarshe ba kuma akwai yanayi daban-daban game da yarjejeniyar, mun yi imanin cewa ƙaddamar da yarjejeniyar a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata, ƙarewar yarjejeniyar masu hannun jari a 2022 da karuwar takunkumin takunkumi a Rasha ya kafa hanyar haɗin gwiwa." "Renaissance Capital yayi sharhi a ranar 5 ga Yuni.
Potanin shi ne Shugaba na Norilsk Nickel kuma Interros na da kashi 35.95% a kamfanin, yayin da Rusal na Deripaska ke da kashi 26.25% a cikin kamfanin.Wani mai hannun jari shine Crispian na oligarch Roman Abramovich da Alexander Abramov (kimanin kashi 4% na hannun jari), tare da 33% kyauta.Babban masu hannun jari na UC Rusal sune En + na Deripaska (56.88%) da SUAL Partners na Victor Vekselberg da Leonard Blavatnik.
Bugu da ƙari, nickel da palladium, Norilsk Nickel kuma yana haƙan jan karfe, platinum, cobalt, rhodium, zinariya, azurfa, iridium, selenium, ruthenium da tellurium.UC Rusal ma'adinan bauxite kuma yana samar da alumina da aluminum.Rikicin Nornickel a bara ya kai $17.9bn da Rusal na $12bn.Don haka kamfanonin biyu za su iya samar da kusan dala biliyan 30, in ji RBC.
Wannan zai yi daidai da gwanayen haƙar ma'adinai na duniya kamar Australo-British Rio Tinto (aluminium, ma'adinan jan ƙarfe, ƙarfe ƙarfe, titanium da lu'u-lu'u, kudaden shiga na 2021 na $ 63.5bn), BHP na Ostiraliya (nickel, jan karfe, ƙarfe, kwal, $61). bn) Vale na Brazil (nickel, iron tama, jan karfe da manganese, $54.4bn) da Anglo American (nickel, manganese, coking coal, platinum metals, iron ore, copper, aluminum and fertilisers, $41.5bn).
"Kamfanin haɗin gwiwar zai sami kwandon karafa mafi daidaitacce, dangane da yanayin gajere da na dogon lokaci a cikin buƙata: 75% na karafa ta hanyar kudaden shiga bisa ga lissafin mu (ciki har da aluminum, jan karfe, nickel da cobalt) za su koma zuwa yanayin tarwatsewar duniya, yayin da wasu, ciki har da palladium, za su yi nuni ga rage hayakin fasahohin da ake da su, "masu nazari a RenCap kimanta.
Tashar tashar kasuwanci ta Bell da RBC suna tunatar da cewa jita-jita na haɗin gwiwa ta farko tsakanin Rusal da Norilsk Nickel sun dawo zuwa 2008, lokacin da Potanin da wani oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov ke raba manyan kadarorin masana'antu.
UC Rusal na Deripaska ya sayi kashi 25% na Norilsk Nickel daga Potanin, amma a maimakon haɗin kai ɗaya daga cikin rikice-rikicen kamfanoni mafi dadewa a tarihin Rasha ya bayyana.
Saurin ci gaba zuwa bayan mamayewa 2022 da Potanin da Deripaska a shirye suke su sake sake nazarin ra'ayin, tare da Potanin jayayya ga RBC cewa babban yuwuwar haɗin gwiwa na iya kasancewa ruɓani na dorewa da tsarin kore na Rusal da Norilsk Nickel, da kuma ɗaukar haɗin gwiwa. goyon bayan jiha.
Koyaya, ya sake nanata cewa "Nornickel har yanzu bai ga wani haɗin kai tare da UC Rusal ba" kuma da gaske kamfanonin za su kula da bututun samar da kayayyaki guda biyu, amma duk da haka yuwuwar zama '' zakaran ƙasa '' a cikin fage na karafa da ma'adinai.
Da yake tsokaci game da sabon takunkumin da Burtaniya ta kakaba masa, Potanin ya yi gardama ga RBC cewa takunkumin "ya damu da ni da kaina, kuma bisa ga binciken da muke da shi a Norilsk Nickel har zuwa yau, ba sa shafar kamfanin".
Wataƙila har yanzu yana kallon kwarewar Deripaska na ɗage takunkumi daga Rusal."A ra'ayinmu, ƙwarewar cire SDN daga jerin takunkumi da tsarin kasuwanci na Rusal / EN + na iya taka muhimmiyar rawa a cikin yarjejeniyar haɗin gwiwa," in ji manazarta RenCap.
Lokacin aikawa: Jul-05-2022